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Gm Equinauts
The first day of the York Ebor festival is here, and it feels so, so good – the best flat horses going toe to toe over the next four days, what more could you want?
‘The jumps back!’ …oh, fuck off.
Now look, this is one of the big flat meetings. There’s 28 races and hundreds of (very high-quality) entries but you’ll do your bollocks if you back every race.
York can be a tricky track and has a sandy base that some horses, for one reason or another just can’t take to it meaning there can be some odd results
If you’re playing ‘chimp’ acca’s (I know people can’t help chasing the lotto wins), keep your size risked to minimum. A £2k bank allows for a £20 single and therefore a ‘chimp’ acca should really be no more than £2-5 but for York, go even smaller. Why? The odds are high on acca’s for a reason – the chances are, you’re not gonna land them (unless it’s one of my slop acca’s) and your chimp will 100% tell you to re-load or ‘just one more’. Well, that quickly eats into your bank.
Singles and doubles with conviction (according to your staking plan) is the way to Ibiza.
The other thing you should do at big meetings, especially a summer one like York when the beer gardens are calling, is get your money down before you’ve had beers and then stop. Delete your betting app if you have to because it’s easy to let the chimp drive when you’re drunk, and you’ll wake up with nothing left.
Enough of the mind and risk management stuff, let’s dive into the York preview.
York Ebor festival – day 1 preview
Gr1 Juddmonte International
This is the highlight of the day - the £1,000,000 Gr1 Juddmonte International Stakes. It’s a race that sees the unbeaten BAAEED attempt to go 10 for 10 – 10 furlongs for his 10th win out of 10 races.
Shaggas’ four-year-old is exploring new territory today, over two and a half furlongs further than he’s ever tried before. His ped, running style and manner of his recent win all suggest he gets it easy. But the trip isn’t the thing people should be worried about today… it’s the bug in the yard.
BAAEED rep’s the mighty Shaggas stable and in recent weeks, there have been some notable withdrawals from big races due to dirty scopes - both MALJOOM and ALENQUER returned dirty scopes and BAAEED backers better hope he hasn’t been anywhere near them. The Haggas lot think BAAEED is in fine form though, he lives in the top yard with only 4 others away from everything else and like normal, nothing even gets near him in work.
So, on that basis, let’s look at who should come in behind him.
BAAEED opposes the title defending, MISHRIFF for team Gosden. They love this horse and tbf to them, there’s strong reason for it. He ran to a higher RPR when winning this race last year, than BAAEED when he won at Goodwood.
The only horse representing this year’s crop of three-year-old colts is Godolphin’s NATIVE TRAIL who returns to action again after his third in the Coral-Eclipse 46 days ago behind MISHRIFF. The bare results are somewhat flattering though, because if you watch the race back, MISHRIFF really should have won with a better ride (hence the reason Egan was sacked off).
NATIVE TRAIL finishing third in July’s Coral-Eclipse behind MISHRIFF:
Of the rest, HIGH DEFINITION looks to be the only pace angle in the race – he could just get an easy lead on the front end and be able to dictate under Ryan Moore. Think BROOME at Royal Ascot type of run. HD’s career has been plagued with lameness which is perhaps the reason he hasn’t delivered up to the hype from Ireland. That said, he’s been holding it together recently and Ballydoyle expect a big run. They’re backing him to place top 3 at 9/4. ‘How do you know that!?’ Trust me, my network is deep and girthy.
Our view: MISHRIFF needs to jump better from the stalls, but the Doyler has been doing A LOT of stall practice with him recently. If BAAEED runs like he should, then he wins and MISHRIFF should follow him home. The uninspiring fc pays even money.
Gr3 Acomb Stakes
This is always an open race and one has to be brave here and look all the way down the field as only two favourites have won this race over the last 10 years (and on was 4/1).
LOCAL DYNASTY is currently topping the market at 9/4 for the deadly duo of Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Godolphin’s son of DUBAWI is out of a really special mare… no, as in that’s actually her name, REALLY SPECIAL. A Listed winner in 2016 and she is a half-sister to YIBIR, WILD ILLUSION and WILD CRUSADE.
LD won a ‘newcomers’ maiden at Newmarket in a ‘twinkle of the eye’, but that was slow on the clock. The other 2yo race on the same day was 2 seconds quicker and that was a class 4 selling stakes race, so the times say LD will have to improve.
MILL STREAM is by Gleneagles (watch out for him as a sire, think ROYAL SCOTSMAN) and a brother to Gr2 winning 2yo ASYMMETRIC. MILL STREAM was touched off by NOBLE STYLE lto and looked good. NOBE STYLE would have won the Coventry at Royal Ascot and runs in the Gimcrack on Friday so that form is banging imo.
MILL STREAM second to Noble Style lto:
CHALDEAN has run twice and won one, both at Newbury. Newbury maidens and novice races are pretty damn good. The novice race he won had been previously won by Reach FOR THE MOON and BAYSIDE BOY and there’s no reason Balding’s lad can’t be as smart. By FRANKEL so typically well bred, he is also a brother to the smart 2yo, the Gr2 Mill Reef winner ALKUMAIT.
Our view: OVIEDO is a juicy price and eachway angle, a few shrewdies that we’ve been talking to like him as well which is reassuring. By a proper stallion in Lope De Vega, his mum is a sister to a champion 2yo CHRISSELIUM and VERY SPECIAL who was 2nd in the Gr1 Falmouth Stakes (the latter is also by LOPE DE VEGA) so the family has done well with him. OVIEDO won a competitive maiden at Doncaster and looked in need of the run, he finished with his ears pricked and loved it. We wouldn’t put you off a hedge with MILL STREAM either, he looks like he just bumped into one lto and can improve from that.
Gr 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes
Although the number of runners are low, with only 6 taking their place in the line-up, the quality is very high and a case can be made for all of them.
Charlie Appleby has won twice in the last four years – today he is represented by two runners, SECRET STATE and WALK OF STARS with SECRET STATE heading the market. We backed SECRET STATE at Royal Ascot; an improving DUBAWI colt whose dam was first past the post in the English 1,000 Guineas. He’s making the step up from class 2 handicap company to this Group 2 and it is quite a sizeable step up in class so I think he’s too short at 9/4 BUT… he could be that price for a reason -Dubawi/Appleby/Buick …big fucking combo.
Aidan O’Brien lacks a good 3yo colt this year but AIKHAL was very impressive on his most recent start going up in trip to 1m2f. He’s a GALILEO out of a useful Stakes performing half-sister to Irish Derby winner LATROBE. Trip shouldn’t be an issue, but class is, he’ll need to improve and prove that lto wasn’t a flash in the pan.
International Stakes:
For one reason or another, Aiden has come up short in the Great Voltigeur before – MOGUL, HIGH DEFINITION and KEW GARDENS have all been beaten and they’re all probably better horses than AIKHAL.
Now to one of the younger trainers, James Ferguson will have woken up with a spring in his step and the usual butterfly jitters before a big game day. It’s a massive day for him - he throws two darts at the race, and to be fair to him, they could be two very accurate darts in DEAUVILLE LEGEND and EL BODEGON.
DEAUVILLE LEGEND is the shorter price of the two. He was second on his last outing in a Gr3 giving weight to a good Godolphin colt and beating the Derby 2nd. Before that he won a Group 3 (beating WALK OF STARS) and was second to SECRET STATE at Royal Ascot, receiving 4lbs.
Deauville Legend is also entered for the Melbourne Cup, with the big race ‘down under’ seeming to be the ultimate target for his connections. This SEA THE STARS gelding already has form over this trip from his three previous performances, most notably in the Bahrain Trophy where he beat AL QAREEM by a head:
EL BODEGON does want the rain but I don’t think there’ll be any excuses if it’s just ‘good’ ground. His 2nd in the French Derby gives him the best form in the race and his third in the Gr1 Grand Prix de Paris is also excellent. I wouldn’t worry about his seasonal debut when he was 7th at York, James would have been walking the box all winter trying not to push him too hard. He’s an important horse for his career and he has got better with each run as he’s got fitter.
WALK OF STARS ties in closely with DEAUVILLE LEGEND who just got the better of him lto. He’s a big strong chap who’ll like the long run in at York (the tight turns at Lingfield or Epsom might not have suited him). He certainly won’t be disgraced but I can just see one or two of his rivals getting the better of him today.
GRAND ALLIANCE is the outsider at 33/1 but he’s by no means out of it. If CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD was in this race, he wouldn’t be bigger than 5/1 and if he stayed straight at Ascot he would have beaten him. He is certainly not making up the numbers and can give the market leaders something to think about. He’s overpriced in a small field with question marks hanging over a couple of them.
Our view: This is a really tough race, and the market simply doesn’t respect what we think is the standout piece of form in the race – EL BODEGON’s French Derby result. Like George Boughey, Ferguson is starting to push the older generation in the training ranks and we think this is the play at the price, however not one to get too heavily involved in.
STAYERS HANDICAP
We wanted to give a small mention to the 16.10 on the card, the Stayers Handicap over two miles, because of two reasons – firstly, it’s a hot little race, and secondly, our big man MASTER MILLINER is the current favourite at 11/2. Woof.
BGP’s grad star is looking to complete a memorable hattrick today just 19 days on from his Glorious Goodwood success (which helped pay for Ibiza) – he was put up five pounds for that victory to a mark of 98, a career-high.
Goodwood handicap win:
Up against him are plenty of horses with Group form stepping down into handicap company, including THUNDEROUS (2nd to STRAD in May), WITHHOLD (4th in the 2020 Ascot Gold Cup), and MORANDO (a Gr3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes winner in 2019).
THUNDEROUS second behind STRAD in the Yorkshire Cup:
There are plenty of improvers in the line-up, none more so than FRANKENSTELLA for the John Quinn team. This Frankel five-year-old beat the talented RAJINSKY last May before he went on to finish third in this year’s Chester Cup and fourth in June’s Northumberland Plate – that is form that has worked out.
Since that Haydock win, she finished third over today’s course and distance to a useful Hendo horse 97 days ago (in 2nd was our lad) and looks to have been saved for this race.
Our view: It’s a fucking tough race, but I wouldn’t want to be on anyone but MASTER MILLINER. MM all the way.
Risk On
14.25 OVIEDO
Loved how he went through his race on debut and finished with his ears pricked having strung out the field. He’s from a proper family and looks a nice individual and worthy of a full bet each way at 12/1.
15.35 BAAEED / MISHRIFF FC
Even money for them to finish in that order looks a no-brainer. Full bet.
16.10 MM
This is just because he’s a BGP grad. We’re not going mad, we’ve had so much yield from him.
17.20 CATHY COME HOME
Burke’s lot think this girl is well-handicapped. She was doing some nice bits of work behind DRAMATISED last week and is ready to go today. Apparently, she was struggling in the build up to Royal Ascot where she had previously scoped dirty and was a tad lame but they took their chance.
Can expect better today. Full bet each way at 9/1.
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